Viewing archive of Monday, 4 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 04 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to two, low-level C-class events. The first was a C1/Sf at 03/2111 UT from Region 787 (S11W58) and the second was a C1 at 04/2037 UT from Region 782 (S18W56). Both of these regions are small and appear to be decaying. Region 783 (S03W07) continues to be the largest on the disk but was in decay today. The group appears to have simplified to a beta magnetic configuration and did not produce any flares. New Region 789 (N18E74) rotated into view today, accompanied by surging on the limb and frequent low-level brightenings. Region 786 (N12E36) showed growth today and appears to have a magnetic delta configuration in the leading group of spots. Despite the complexity in 786 the group did not produce any flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated M-class event, with Regions 786 or Region 783 the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 July).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 124
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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