Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 June 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 29 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Regions 782 (S17E09), 783 (S01E59), and 784 (N16E70) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm period possible on 01 and 02 July due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 088
  Predicted    30 Jun-02 Jul  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  005/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  008/008-010/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 10%10%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm 10%25%25%
Major-severe storm 01%15%15%

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