Viewing archive of Monday, 27 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 27 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 781 (N16E76)
produced an impulsive C2.8 flare at 0848 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 781 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with solar wind speed ending the
period at 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained above high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 28 June, from the possible
effects of a weak CME shock associated with the disappearing
filament observed on 25 June. Activity should subside to quiet
conditions on 29-30 June.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 077 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 012/012-008/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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