Viewing archive of Friday, 3 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 03 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 772 (S17E09)
produced an M1.3/1b flare at 0411 UTC with associated Type II radio
sweep (571 km/s). There was also an M1.0 flare from the NE limb at
1226 UTC. A powerful CME with a speed of over 1500 km/s was
observed on LASCO imagery following this flare. A strong post-flare
loop system was also visible on the east limb near N15. This flare
originated from a region around the limb not yet numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels. C-class activity is expected
from Region 772. Isolated M-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled through 05 June. A CME from today's M1
flare in Region 772 may create occasional active periods on 05 and
06 June.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 095 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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