Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 01 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 772 (S18E36)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 0243 UTC with associated type II
sweep. The region generated numerous C-class events during the day
as well. Data indicate a modest degree of magnetic complexity and
growth in white light. Elsewhere, new region 773 (S12E76) rotated
into view with mature leader and follower spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 772 should continue to produce C-class activity with an
isolated M-class flare possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The energetic electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled through 04 June.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 094 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 010/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 010/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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