Viewing archive of Friday, 13 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 13 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 759 (N12E06) produced
an M8/2b flare at 13/1657 UTC. The flare was associated with
significant radio output that included type II/IV sweeps and a 2900
sfu burst at 2695 MHz. This event was also associated with an
apparent Earth-directed CME. Region 758 (S09W81) only managed to
generate a few minor flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Most activity is expected to occur in Regions 758 and
759.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced from the M8 flare
discussed in Part IA but has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.
Storm conditions are possible on 15 and 16 May due to the CME
associated with the M8 flare in Region 759. There is a chance that
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could surpass the 10 pfu event
threshold on 14 May due to the same major event.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 126 Predicted 14 May-16 May 120/110/100 90 Day Mean 13 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 013/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 025/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 012/015-050/075-030/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 60% | 60% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
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