Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 03 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 758 (S07E63) was
responsible for a long duration C8 flare at 02/2248 UTC and an
associated CME. A very bright post eruption arcade was visible on
SXI and EIT imagery. Region 758's limb proximity is hindering a
full analysis, however, it appears to be a moderately complex
beta-gamma group. Later in the day, a partial halo CME was observed
on LASCO imagery at 03/1750 UTC. This is another in a series of
backsided CME's that have occurred since 30 April. None of the
CME's are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 756 (S07W38) or
758.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 112 Predicted 04 May-06 May 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 03 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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