Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 03 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 758 (S07E63) was responsible for a long duration C8 flare at 02/2248 UTC and an associated CME. A very bright post eruption arcade was visible on SXI and EIT imagery. Region 758's limb proximity is hindering a full analysis, however, it appears to be a moderately complex beta-gamma group. Later in the day, a partial halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery at 03/1750 UTC. This is another in a series of backsided CME's that have occurred since 30 April. None of the CME's are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with the chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 756 (S07W38) or 758.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 112
  Predicted   04 May-06 May  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        03 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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