Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 27 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 745
(N12W24) continues to slowly decay. No significant activity was
observed on the solar disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. Just two small and magnetically simple sunspot
groups exist on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Solar wind speed, which is elevated due to a high speed
coronal hole stream, is in decline. The wind speed began the period
near 650 km/s, but gradually weakened to around 550 km/s. The
greater that 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days. Isolated active periods are possible on 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 078 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 010/015-008/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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