Viewing archive of Monday, 14 March 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to a C1 x-ray event at 0708 UTC from Region 741 (N12W68). Region 742 (S05W24) is currently the largest group on the disk (320 millionths) but is no longer growing and only managed to produce a few low-level B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 742 or 741.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a minor storm period at mid-latitude from 0000-0300 UTC, and a minor storm period based on the estimated planetary K index from 1200-1500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels at the beginning of the period, but dropped below 1000 PFU after 13/2305 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (15-17 March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 112
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  020/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  010/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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