Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a C1.1 flare at 1637UTC from Region 735 (S07W06). Region 735 has developed a weak delta configuration just to the south of the main leader spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance of an M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Conditions were initially quiet but attained unsettled to active levels after 0900 UTC. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed in the solar wind data at about 15/2120 UTC, and was followed by oscillations in the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz in the range from -8 to +5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for 17 February. An increase to unsettled to active is expected for 18 February due to a coronal hole. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled on 19 February.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 113
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  110/105/100
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  001/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  008/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/012-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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