Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C1.1 flare at 1637UTC
from Region 735 (S07W06). Region 735 has developed a weak delta
configuration just to the south of the main leader spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Conditions
were initially quiet but attained unsettled to active levels after
0900 UTC. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed in the solar
wind data at about 15/2120 UTC, and was followed by oscillations in
the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz in the range from -8
to +5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for 17 February. An increase to
unsettled to active is expected for 18 February due to a coronal
hole. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled on 19 February.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 113 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 001/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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