Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare at 1948 UTC
from Region 734 (S04W10). Additional B-class flares were observed
during the day, mostly from Region 735 (S08E06).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux attained high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for tomorrow (February 16). Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on February 17 and unsettled to
slightly active conditions are expected on February 18. The increase
is anticipated in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 122 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 005/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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