Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare at 1948 UTC from Region 734 (S04W10). Additional B-class flares were observed during the day, mostly from Region 735 (S08E06).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for tomorrow (February 16). Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on February 17 and unsettled to slightly active conditions are expected on February 18. The increase is anticipated in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 122
  Predicted    16 Feb-18 Feb  120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  005/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm 05%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm 05%15%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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