Viewing archive of Friday, 4 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at 04/1509Z from a source on the east limb near N14. This is likely the return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178), which produced several major flares during its previous transit across the visible disk. Several brightenings near the northeast limb suggest this region is still quite active. A CME at 04/0731Z occurred in association with a prominence eruption from the northeast limb. The CME does not appear to be Earth directed. New Region 730 (S20E73) was numbered today and produced occasional B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The probability for M-class activty will increase following the return of old Region 720 on 05 February.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed began the period at over 500 km/s, but gradually decreased to near 430 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled periods on 05 and 06 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 07 February and induce occasional active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M15%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 082
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  090/100/115
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  005/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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