Viewing archive of Friday, 4 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
04/1509Z from a source on the east limb near N14. This is likely the
return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178), which produced several major
flares during its previous transit across the visible disk. Several
brightenings near the northeast limb suggest this region is still
quite active. A CME at 04/0731Z occurred in association with a
prominence eruption from the northeast limb. The CME does not appear
to be Earth directed. New Region 730 (S20E73) was numbered today and
produced occasional B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The probability for M-class activty will increase
following the return of old Region 720 on 05 February.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed began the period at
over 500 km/s, but gradually decreased to near 430 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled periods
on 05 and 06 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into geoeffective position on 07 February and induce
occasional active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 082 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 090/100/115 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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