Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 727 (S09W42) exhibited some growth in size and magnetic complexity, and was observed in a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 727 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speeds remained steady at about 600 km/s over the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 31 January, diminshing to quiet to unsettled conditions on 1-2 February as the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 086
  Predicted    31 Jan-02 Feb  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  016/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  010/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  014/020-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%40%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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