Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 727 (S09W42)
exhibited some growth in size and magnetic complexity, and was
observed in a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 727 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speeds
remained steady at about 600 km/s over the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 31 January, diminshing to quiet to
unsettled conditions on 1-2 February as the coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 086 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 016/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 010/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 014/020-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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