Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
development was observed from active regions and no new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed measured
at ACE increased to over 550 km/s as a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream moved into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor
storming on 30 January from the residual effects of elevated solar
wind. Activity should subside on 1-2 February to quiet to unsettled
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 086 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 016/020-014/020-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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