Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N05W19) produced several C-class flares, including a C7.3/Sf at 04/1113 UTC. Region 715 continues to decay in size and magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 715 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind at ACE remains elevated at about 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 5 January due to continued high speed solar wind. As the coronal hole producing this elevated wind moves out of geoeffective position, geomagnetic conditions should subside to quiet to unsettled on 6-7 January.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M20%20%15%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 088
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  014/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  015/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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