Viewing archive of Monday, 20 December 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 713 (S09E34) has grown in white light area coverage to over 200 millionths and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 713 could possibly produce an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 22 December due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 094
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  008/010-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm10%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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