Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 November 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 10 2220 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity continued at high levels this period. The very active Region 696 (N08W62) produced an X2/3b Tenflare with protons at 10/0213Z. Strong Type II and IV radio sweeps and moderate centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this flare. LASCO imagery showed a very fast asymetrical full halo CME with a plane-of-sky speed estimated at 2000 km/s. Region 696 continues to gradually decrease in area, but maintains a significant delta configuration. The rest of the visible disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696, though in decay, maintains potential for major flare activity. This region will rotate around the west limb on 13 November and as a result, solar activity levels are expected to significantly decline.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. Yesterday's strong shock at 09/1852Z was followed by a short period of strong southward Bz to near 40 nT, before rotating northward for approximately five hours. At 10/0100Z, the solar wind exceeded 800 km/s and Bz rotated southward again, ranging from -15 to -25 nT for over nine hours. The geomagnetic field response was severe at all latitudes. The period ended at minor storm levels with solar wind speed declining to near 600 km/s. A new influx of high energy protons followed the X2 flare at 10/0213Z. A greater than 10 MeV peak flux of 424 pfu was observed at 10/1655Z. A greater than 100 Mev proton event also occurred in association with the X2 flare. It began on 10/0320Z, peaked at 2.1 pfu at 10/0340Z, and ended at 10/1250Z. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to severe storm levels on 11 and 12 November. The two halo CMEs observed on 09 and 10 November are expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 11 November. Both of these fast CMEs had a strong westward component; however, their combined effects may produce major or even severe storm periods. On 12 November, field conditions are expected to return to mostly unsettled to minor storm levels, with occasional major storm periods at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 13 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to end by 12 November.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M70%65%60%
Class X20%15%10%
Proton99%25%15%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 105
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  100/095/090
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  047/120
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  100/200
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  075/125-030/050-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%30%
Minor storm50%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%40%
Minor storm40%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%10%

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