Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 September 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region 672 (N05E47) produced several B and C-class flares, the largest was a C1.6 x-ray event that occurred at 11/0006Z. This region has become slightly more magnetically complicated with gamma structures now visible in the trailing portion of region. Regions 667 (S11W58) and 669 (S06W51) were quiescent today and remain simply structured magnetic beta groups. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels throughout the period. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 672.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Sep 116
  Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep  115/110/100
  90 Day Mean        11 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  001/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Sep  001/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  003/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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