Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
672 (N05E47) produced several B and C-class flares, the largest was
a C1.6 x-ray event that occurred at 11/0006Z. This region has
become slightly more magnetically complicated with gamma structures
now visible in the trailing portion of region. Regions 667 (S11W58)
and 669 (S06W51) were quiescent today and remain simply structured
magnetic beta groups. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low levels throughout the period. There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 672.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 116 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 115/110/100 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 001/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 001/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 003/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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