Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 652 (N08E06)
produced a M9.1 flare at 22/0032 UTC as well as several C-class
flares from 0633 to 0808 UTC. A CME was observed shortly after the
M9 flare on LASCO emerging southward, although it was not earthward
directed. Two coronal mass ejections occurred simultaneously to
form a faint full-halo CME observed on LASCO imagery. These CMEs
may be associated with one or more of the previously mentioned
C-class flares. Region 652 was observed to decay slightly over the
past 24 hours while maintaining its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 652 maintains its potential to produce
major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A geomagnetic sudden
impulse was observed at 1028 UTC with a 25 nanoTesla deviation.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions have been observed since
the sudden impulse. Solar wind speed at ACE steadily increased
after the sudden impulse from 400 km/s to 700 km/s. Bz maintained a
steady southward orientation, up to as much as -19 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active tomorrow (23 July) from the continued
effects of the CME arrival already observed, and the possible
arrival of another CME shock on late 23 July from the CME observed
on LASCO today. Activity should subside to quiet to unsettled
levels on 24-25 July.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 173 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 170/160/160 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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