Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 June 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635 (S12W01) produced several C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C2/Sf event that occurred at 20/1332Z. There was continued growth in the sunspot area, most notably around the intermediate spots. Region 635 continues to exhibit a delta magnetic configuration in the trailing portion of the active region. Region 634 (N12W18) was quiescent today with little change observed over the period. The large, lead asymmetrical spot continues to display a delta magnetic structure. New Region 636 (S10E30) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 634 and 635 are capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 119
  Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun  120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  004/005-004/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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