Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635
(S12W01) produced several C-class flares during the period. The
largest was a C2/Sf event that occurred at 20/1332Z. There was
continued growth in the sunspot area, most notably around the
intermediate spots. Region 635 continues to exhibit a delta
magnetic configuration in the trailing portion of the active region.
Region 634 (N12W18) was quiescent today with little change observed
over the period. The large, lead asymmetrical spot continues to
display a delta magnetic structure. New Region 636 (S10E30) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 634 and 635 are capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 119 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 004/005-004/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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