Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
several C-class events, most of which were from Region 635 (S12E12).
The largest of these was a C3/Sf at 1937 UTC. Region 635 continues
to have a delta configuration in the trailer part of the group and
this was the location of most of the activity in the region. Region
634 (N12W05) managed to produce a C-class flare and appears to have
also developed a small delta configuration in the leader spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 635 and perhaps also from Region 634.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (20-22
June).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 113 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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