Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 June 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of several C-class events, most of which were from Region 635 (S12E12). The largest of these was a C3/Sf at 1937 UTC. Region 635 continues to have a delta configuration in the trailer part of the group and this was the location of most of the activity in the region. Region 634 (N12W05) managed to produce a C-class flare and appears to have also developed a small delta configuration in the leader spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 635 and perhaps also from Region 634.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (20-22 June).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M 55%55%55%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 113
  Predicted    20 Jun-22 Jun  115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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