Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 May 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 615 (N17W53) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 24/2239Z. Region 618 (S10W00) was limited to B-class flare production this period while two delta structures remain evident across the magnetic region center in this beta-gamma-delta complex. Little change was noted in sunspot area today. A 20 degree filament that was seen near the north-center of the disk became active just before 24/1800Z, and had fully erupted by 24/1930Z. This disappearing filament resulted in a northward directed CME as seen on LASCO imagery and appears to have little geoeffective potential. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 618 remains capable of producing isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 102
  Predicted   26 May-28 May  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        25 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  007/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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