Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 618 (S10E41)
produced an M2/Sf at 21/2352 UTC, as well as several C-class events.
The region has continued to grow and has formed a delta
configuration as leader penumbral spots of opposite polarity have
consolidated. Region 615 (N18W13) managed to produce a C1 event at
21/2220 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable. Region 617 (S10W60)
exhibited some minor surge activity but did not manage to produce
any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected be mostly
low, but there is a fair chance for additional, isolated M-class
activity from Region 618.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind speeds
continue to be elevated in the 450-500 km/s range.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (23 May), but
should transition to mostly quiet as the high speed solar wind is
expected to decline gradually late on the 23rd through the 24th.
Conditions should be mostly quiet with occasional periods of
unsettled levels for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 102 Predicted 23 May-25 May 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 22 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 010/012-005/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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