Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 596 (S08W79)
was stable in size and Region 599 (N15W11) exhibited gradual decay.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 596
and 599.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A rise in solar wind
speed from 400 to 550 km/s was observed late in the period which may
have given rise to isolated active geomagnetic conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active to
minor storm conditions possible on day two (30 April). Activity
should return to quiet to unsettled levels on 1 May.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 090 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 005/008-010/020-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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