Viewing archive of Friday, 23 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 597 (S08W91)
produced an M1 at 1150 UTC, as well as numerous C-class flares. The
region is currently rotating out of view. Region 596 (S08W09) is the
largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable during the past
24 hours, and appears to be slowly declining.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-flare from
either Region 597 (next 24 hours only), or from Region 596.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm levels at high latitudes. Real-time solar wind
data from ACE indicate the presence of a weak, high-speed stream
with velocities around 400-450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods
during the next three days as the high speed stream is expected to
persist.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 115 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 012/015-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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