Viewing archive of Friday, 12 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S14W05) produced an impulsive C3/Sf at 12/0237Z with minor centimetric radio bursts. The large leading sunspot cluster in this region began to fragment this period and the trailing spots have decayed considerably; however, a weak delta configuration is still evident. A new bipolar sunspot group formed north and center on the disk and was numbered as Region 572 (N19W05). New Region 573 (S14E71) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Occasional C-class activity is expected from Region 570 with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed stream associated with a large transequatorial coronal hole is responsible for the current disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods possible. The coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue through 13 March. Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods are expected on 14 and 15 March as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 108
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  017/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  022/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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