Viewing archive of Monday, 1 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 564 (N13W80) produced two B-class flares during the past 24 hours but was otherwise quiet and stable. Region 567 (S13E11) is the only other region of note on the solar disk, and has some mixing of weak magnetic polarity near the center of the group. However the region did not produce any flare activity during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 564 or Region 567.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream associated with a favorably positioned corona hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (2 March) as the current conditions are likely to persist. A decline to mostly unsettled is expected for the 2nd and 3rd days (3-4 March).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
Class M20%15%10%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Mar 102
  Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  100/095/090
  90 Day Mean        01 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb  017/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Mar  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  015/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm35%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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