Viewing archive of Monday, 1 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 564 (N13W80)
produced two B-class flares during the past 24 hours but was
otherwise quiet and stable. Region 567 (S13E11) is the only other
region of note on the solar disk, and has some mixing of weak
magnetic polarity near the center of the group. However the region
did not produce any flare activity during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from Region 564 or Region 567.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show
the continuation of a high speed stream associated with a favorably
positioned corona hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (2 March)
as the current conditions are likely to persist. A decline to mostly
unsettled is expected for the 2nd and 3rd days (3-4 March).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 102 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 100/095/090 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 015/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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