Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 554 (S09W13), the largest sunspot group on the visible disk, is a D-type group with a simple beta configuration. This region remains stable with no significant changes or activity noted this period. New Region 559 (N07W42) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from Region 554.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated following the onset of a high speed coronal hole stream on 12 February. Solar wind speed averaged 620 km/s this period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. The coronal hole high speed stream in effect now is expected to continue through 16 February. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected on 17 February.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 104
  Predicted    15 Feb-17 Feb  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  016/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  012/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.56nT).

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