Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 554 (S09W13), the largest sunspot group on the visible disk, is a D-type group with a simple beta configuration. This region remains stable with no significant changes or activity noted this period. New Region 559 (N07W42) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from Region 554.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated following the onset of a high speed coronal hole stream on 12 February. Solar wind speed averaged 620 km/s this period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. The coronal hole high speed stream in effect now is expected to continue through 16 February. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected on 17 February.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 104
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  016/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  012/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

79%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare2020/05/29M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2020/04/20Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last 365 days292 days
2020157 days (71%)
Last spotless day2020/07/20

This day in history*

Solar flares
12011X6.9
21998M3.3
32011M2.5
41998M1.0
52016C8.9
ApG
1199522
2200821G1
3200414
4200314
5200214
*since 1994

Social networks