Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. A C2.5 x-ray
flare was observed on the east solar limb at 07/1326Z. This
activity has been associated with newly numbered Region 554 (S08E76)
which has yet to fully emerge onto the visible disk. Region 551
(S06W00) has continued to show slight, although steady growth in
sunspot count and penumbral coverage. There appears to be a
counter-clockwise rotation of the spots along with some mixing of
polarities in the heliographic center of this active region. A
gamma magnetic structure is materializing in this area of the region
while the gamma complex in the trailing portion of the region
remains evident.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels. Region 551 has the potential to produce an isolated
minor M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels throughout the period.
9 February may experience isolated minor storm conditions, at
predominantly higher latitudes, due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 111 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 008/015-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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