Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There were no flares in the past 24 hours. The solar disk was devoid of spots for most of the day, but towards the end of the period there was evidence for a new active region (or regions) rotating on the disk at latitudes S10-S15, near the location where old Region 536 would be expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There should be a slow rise in background levels as the new active region (or regions) rotate into view.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind velocity showed a gradual increase beginning around 0100 UTC, and this was accompanied by frequent fluctuations in the interplanetary Bz component in the range of about -7 nT to +7 nT. These signatures together with a consistent 'away' polarity in the solar phi angle all suggest that the activity was driven by favorably positioned positive polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next two days (29-30 January). An increase to unsettled to active is expected on the third day (31 January) as another coronal hole rotates into favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 089
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  013/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  010/015-010/015-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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