Viewing archive of Friday, 23 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels again today.
Several low level B-class flares and minor discrete frequency radio
bursts highlighted today's activity. All four active regions showed
decay during the period; Regions 540 (S14W61), 542 (N10W42), 543
(S16W47), and 544 (N08W30). All regions have lost their gamma
characteristics over the past two days. No new regions were
numbered this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 544 remains capable of producing a
high level C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
An apparent transient signature was observed to pass the ACE
spacecraft at approximately 23/1400Z which may be related to the
filament eruption and related CME from the southeastern solar
quadrant early on 19 Jan. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the period. Isolated minor storm conditions may occur into 24 Jan
due to the recent transient activity.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 115 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 035/062 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 015/020-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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