Viewing archive of Friday, 23 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels again today. Several low level B-class flares and minor discrete frequency radio bursts highlighted today's activity. All four active regions showed decay during the period; Regions 540 (S14W61), 542 (N10W42), 543 (S16W47), and 544 (N08W30). All regions have lost their gamma characteristics over the past two days. No new regions were numbered this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 544 remains capable of producing a high level C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. An apparent transient signature was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at approximately 23/1400Z which may be related to the filament eruption and related CME from the southeastern solar quadrant early on 19 Jan. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the period. Isolated minor storm conditions may occur into 24 Jan due to the recent transient activity.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M20%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 115
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  035/062
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  015/020-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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