Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W18)
produced the largest flare of the period, a long duration C5/Sf
flare at 25/0825Z. This region has shown a slight growth over the
period and retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 525
(N09W49) produced several low level C-class flares early in the
period. No spots were visible in this region at the time of this
writing. New Region 532 (S11E02) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 528 has a slight chance of producing a low level
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The solar
wind speed continues a gradual decline, ending the period below 380
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 139 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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