Viewing archive of Monday, 1 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 508 (S19W84)
produced several minor B and C-class flares today. This region is
exiting the west limb. Region 510 (S23W29) underwent steady decay
throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
High latitudes experienced periods of active conditions due to a
weak recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 143 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 008/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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