Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 501 (N03E35)
produced a single long duration C-class flare at 1039Z. This Region
continues to show some minor activity, but so far poses little
threat of major flare. Last solar rotation's Regions 486 and 488
are now near the limb, and though they show good loop structure and
intensity, are currently less intense than their last appearance.
Analysis during their passage on the back side of the sun indicate
last major eruption on the 13th of November.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 501 is a minor threat to produce M-class flares
throughout the period. Regions 486 and 488 from the previous
rotation are due to return by 18 November, and have the potential
even now while on the limb to produce M-class flares, with a very
small chance to produce X-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A
favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting solar wind speeds in
excess of 750 km/s. This and interplanetary magnetic field
variations have produced, and will continue to produce, active to
minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The coronal hole
which is currently elevating our magnetic activity will continue to
be a driver through day two, abating by midway through day three.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 104 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 105/125/150 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 021/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 025/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 025/035-020/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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