Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 501 (N03E35) produced a single long duration C-class flare at 1039Z. This Region continues to show some minor activity, but so far poses little threat of major flare. Last solar rotation's Regions 486 and 488 are now near the limb, and though they show good loop structure and intensity, are currently less intense than their last appearance. Analysis during their passage on the back side of the sun indicate last major eruption on the 13th of November.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 501 is a minor threat to produce M-class flares throughout the period. Regions 486 and 488 from the previous rotation are due to return by 18 November, and have the potential even now while on the limb to produce M-class flares, with a very small chance to produce X-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting solar wind speeds in excess of 750 km/s. This and interplanetary magnetic field variations have produced, and will continue to produce, active to minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The coronal hole which is currently elevating our magnetic activity will continue to be a driver through day two, abating by midway through day three.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M40%50%50%
Class X05%05%10%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 104
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  105/125/150
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  021/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  025/032
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  025/035-020/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm35%35%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm35%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

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