Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 501(N03E48)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 15/1912Z and a number of smaller C and
B-class flares. The region maintains its beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 503(N17E09) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity on 16 and 17
November. Old Region 488(N08, L=290) is expected to return to the
visible disk on 18 November and could have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. At
approximately 0520Z, a shock was observed passing the NASA/ACE
spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased to 750 km/s and Bz was
southward for a four hour period near -10nT. Minor to major storm
levels were observed as a result of the shock combined with
continued high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The effects of
the large coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue.
Minor storm levels are expected, with a chance of isolated major
storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 098 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 105/105/125 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 021/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 030/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
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