Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 501(N03E48) produced a C2/Sf flare at 15/1912Z and a number of smaller C and B-class flares. The region maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 503(N17E09) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity on 16 and 17 November. Old Region 488(N08, L=290) is expected to return to the visible disk on 18 November and could have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. At approximately 0520Z, a shock was observed passing the NASA/ACE spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased to 750 km/s and Bz was southward for a four hour period near -10nT. Minor to major storm levels were observed as a result of the shock combined with continued high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The effects of the large coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue. Minor storm levels are expected, with a chance of isolated major storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M 40%40%45%
Class X 05%05%10%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 098
  Predicted    16 Nov-18 Nov  105/105/125
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  021/037
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  030/035
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm 35%35%30%
Major-severe storm 20%20%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm 45%45%40%
Major-severe storm 35%35%30%

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