Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S15E31) produced a long-duration X1.2/3n at 26/0654 UTC, with associated Type II and IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo CME observed on LASCO imagery with an estimated speed of 1245 km/s. Region 484 (N03W41) produced a long-duration X1.2/2n at 26/1819 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and a partial-halo CME observed on Mauna Loa coronameter imagery. The rise in X-ray flux for this flare was observed at 1721, and 10 MeV proton flux began to rise at the ACE spacecraft at 1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached 10 pfu at 1825 and peaked at 332 pfu at 2020 UTC. An 18-degree filament erupted around S18W51 at 0346 UTC, and a 12-degree filament erupted at N00W55 at 0331 UTC. Both erupting filaments were observed on EIT imagery, and their respective CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery. Neither CME appears to be earth-directed. Regions 484 and 486 maintained their magnetic complexity, although Region 484 decayed slightly in size. The 10.7 cm flux value was flare-enhanced and is estimated due to solar activity at the time of the observation.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce C- and M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active all three days, with possible minor and isolated major storm conditions on days two and three due to partial halo CMEs from both X flares observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M90%90%90%
Class X50%50%50%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 298
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  200/200/170
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  010/015-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm05%15%25%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm25%40%45%
Major-severe storm20%30%30%

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