Viewing archive of Monday, 13 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. The few spotted regions on the solar disk remain stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The solar wind speed has shown a slow steady increase during the period from around 300 km/s to current velocities of 500 km/s and the Bz ranged from +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14 October. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 15-16 October with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 094
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  015/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/09/28Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:210
Current stretch spotless days:12

This day in history*

Solar flares
11999X1.8
22014M2.2
32000M1.1
42014M1.1
52000C8.7
ApG
1200366G3
2200045G2
3199931G1
4201730G1
5200623
*since 1994

Social networks