Viewing archive of Monday, 13 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. The few spotted regions on the solar disk remain stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The solar wind speed has shown a slow steady increase during the period from around 300 km/s to current velocities of 500 km/s and the Bz ranged from +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14 October. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 15-16 October with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 094
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  015/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

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