Viewing archive of Monday, 13 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The few spotted
regions on the solar disk remain stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The solar
wind speed has shown a slow steady increase during the period from
around 300 km/s to current velocities of 500 km/s and the Bz ranged
from +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14 October. Active
to minor storm conditions are expected on 15-16 October with the
arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 094 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 015/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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