Viewing archive of Monday, 6 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 471 (S08W04) produced only low level B-class flares today. No significant changes were seen in the magnetic complexity or the penumbral coverage during the period. The gamma magnetic structure remains intact. Regions 476 (S16E12) and 477 (S15E63) were newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare from the moderately complex Region 471.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to isolated active levels. The solar wind speeds increased to 600 km/s due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The Bz component of the IMF remained north throughout the majority of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The remainder of the period should see predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Oct 112
  Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        06 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  004/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Oct  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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