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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region 471 (S08E09) was responsible for most of the recorded activity during the period. Multiple B and C-class flares occurred from this region and the gamma portion near the center of the spot cluster remains intact. This region continues to show signs of having a moderately complex magnetic field although some decrease in penumbral coverage was noted during the interval. Region 475 (S22E47) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 471 has the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the period. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible in the nighttime sectors for the first two days due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Day three should see a return to predominantly unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 110
  Predicted    06 Oct-08 Oct  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%35%
Minor storm 30%25%20%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%

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