Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
471 (S08E09) was responsible for most of the recorded activity
during the period. Multiple B and C-class flares occurred from this
region and the gamma portion near the center of the spot cluster
remains intact. This region continues to show signs of having a
moderately complex magnetic field although some decrease in
penumbral coverage was noted during the interval. Region 475
(S22E47) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 471 has the potential of producing isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the period.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible in the nighttime
sectors for the first two days due to a recurrent high speed coronal
hole stream. Day three should see a return to predominantly
unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 110 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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