Viewing archive of Friday, 3 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares were observed this period from Region 471 (S08E35). This region contains a moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. The lead spots in this group were redefined as a separate active region and assigned as Region 473 (S07E20). No other significant activity was noted this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 471 is the only region with any real potential for C-class flares, and just a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated minor storm period between 03/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed is slightly elevated (450 - 500 km/s) and IMF Bz is varying between +5 and -5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days one and two with isolated active periods possible due to weak coronal hole flow. Mostly unsettled to active periods are likely on day three as the coronal hole high speed flow becomes more pronounced.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Oct 120
  Predicted    04 Oct-06 Oct  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        03 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  004/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  012/017
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  005/010-005/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm 10%10%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%10%

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