Viewing archive of Friday, 3 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed this period from Region 471 (S08E35). This region
contains a moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. The lead spots
in this group were redefined as a separate active region and
assigned as Region 473 (S07E20). No other significant activity was
noted this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 471 is the only region with any real potential for C-class
flares, and just a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 03/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed is
slightly elevated (450 - 500 km/s) and IMF Bz is varying between +5
and -5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on days one and two with isolated
active periods possible due to weak coronal hole flow. Mostly
unsettled to active periods are likely on day three as the coronal
hole high speed flow becomes more pronounced.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 120 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 004/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/010-005/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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