Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W62) was responsible for numerous C-class flares, including a C5.4/1f at 29/2146 UTC. New Region 471 (S07E63) was numbered today. It emerged from behind the east limb and produced a C4.9/Sf at 30/2021 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 464 has the potential for C- and M-class flares. Region 471 may also produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels. There exists an isolated chance of unsettled to active conditions from a CME arrival related to an erupting filament on 28 Sep.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M 45%45%45%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 133
  Predicted    01 Oct-03 Oct  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  004/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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