Viewing archive of Friday, 26 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W07) continues to grow and produce a series of low-level flare activity. The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as previously expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low. Region 464 does harbor a slight chance for isolated M-class flare activity, and an even slighter chance for an X-class event. By the end of the day, it will reach a position which makes it a very slight threat to produce an energetic proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole, which has induced a high-speed solar wind stream for the last few days, is in its final stages, but continues to impact the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the remainder of today and into tomorrow. Then it is expected to drop off to quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active for later in day two and into day three. The high-speed stream currently impacting the Earth's magnetic field will continue to wane, but still poses a threat to spike for a short period during day two.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Sep 131
  Predicted    27 Sep-29 Sep  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        26 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  016/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Sep  020/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  020/030-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25%20%20%
Major-severe storm 25%20%10%

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