Viewing archive of Friday, 26 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W07)
continues to grow and produce a series of low-level flare activity.
The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC
is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as
previously expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 464 does harbor a slight chance for isolated M-class
flare activity, and an even slighter chance for an X-class event.
By the end of the day, it will reach a position which makes it a
very slight threat to produce an energetic proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole, which has induced a high-speed solar wind stream for
the last few days, is in its final stages, but continues to impact
the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the remainder
of today and into tomorrow. Then it is expected to drop off to
quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active for later in
day two and into day three. The high-speed stream currently
impacting the Earth's magnetic field will continue to wane, but
still poses a threat to spike for a short period during day two.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 131 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 016/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 020/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 020/030-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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