Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 456(S08W73) produce a C4/Sf flare at 14/0127Z. This region appears to be in decay but due to limb proximity analysis is unclear. A nineteen-degree filament lifted off at approximately 14/1837Z in the vicinity of N26W14. New Region 459 (S11E38) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to active levels are possible on day one and day two due expected weak CME effects. Active to minor storm levels are possible on day three with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 095
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  006/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  012/015-015/020-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

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