Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 456(S08W73)
produce a C4/Sf flare at 14/0127Z. This region appears to be in
decay but due to limb proximity analysis is unclear. A
nineteen-degree filament lifted off at approximately 14/1837Z in the
vicinity of N26W14. New Region 459 (S11E38) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to active
levels are possible on day one and day two due expected weak CME
effects. Active to minor storm levels are possible on day three
with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 095 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 012/015-015/020-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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