Viewing archive of Monday, 8 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Type III
radio sweeps comprised most of today's activity. Region 456
(S09E08) is the most complex region on the disk and was newly
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Isolated low level C-class flares are possible from
Region 456.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated minor
storm periods through days one and two. Activity on day two may be
further enhanced due to a possible transient passage resulting from
yesterday's long-duration C5 flare. Day three should see a return
to predominantly unsettled conditions as the recurrent coronal hole
wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 099 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 003/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 015/020-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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