Viewing archive of Monday, 8 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Type III radio sweeps comprised most of today's activity. Region 456 (S09E08) is the most complex region on the disk and was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. Isolated low level C-class flares are possible from Region 456.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated minor storm periods through days one and two. Activity on day two may be further enhanced due to a possible transient passage resulting from yesterday's long-duration C5 flare. Day three should see a return to predominantly unsettled conditions as the recurrent coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Sep 099
  Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  003/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  015/020-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%45%30%
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%40%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

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