Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. A number of small x-ray flares
occurred in Region 431 (S10W90) from its location just beyond the
west limb. The largest was a C4 at 21/1522 UTC. The largest region
presently on the disk is 436 (N07E17) but it appears relatively
simple and has not flared today. New Regions 438 (S31W31), 439
(N08W23), 440 (S08E12), and 441 (N12E48) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 431, 436, and an area not
yet numbered rotating around the east limb near S12E90.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The most disturbed period was from 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. ACE solar
wind data indicates the gradual onset of a coronal hole
high-speed-stream over the past 24 hours. Current solar wind
parameters include speed at about 700 km/s, density from 1 to 5
p/cc, and Bz fluctuating between +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly active to minor storm levels for the
duration of the forecast period as the high-speed-stream disturbance
continues.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 119 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 040/052 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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