Viewing archive of Friday, 8 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A C2 flare occurred
at 1436Z from the east limb. Region 424 (S18W14) continues its
gradual decay and has simplified to a beta gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 425 (S09W17) was the source of a C1 flare at
1636Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 424 has the potential for isolated
M-class events. Activity from the east limb is likely to continue
and possibly increase over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. Periods
of southward Bz near - 8 nT produced major and minor storm periods
early in the day. Solar wind speed increased from 600 km/s to near
800 km/s at 0600Z and has remained elevated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor
storm conditions are possible on day one of the period. On day two
and three of the period high speed stream effects are expected to
diminish resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 133 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 025/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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