Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 417 (S22W76)
produced several C-class events during the period. This region
continues to exhibit a beta gamma magnetic configuration. Region
410 (S13W66) is still the largest region on the visible disk but
continues to decay slightly in sunspot count and area coverage. A
new region was numbered today as Region 419 (N10E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 417 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data indicates a possible transient disturbance which brought the
speed up gradually through the period from a background of around
450 km/s to a peak of 523 km/s at 23/1544 UTC. This was also
accompanied with a southward turning of Bz at 23/1404 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quit to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 144 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 012/012-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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