Viewing archive of Friday, 11 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Several
minor B and C-class flares were observed during the period. Even
though Region 397 (N12, L=028) has rotated beyond the west limb it
managed to produce most of the recorded C-class activity. Region
401 (S09W05) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.9 that
occurred at 11/0739Z. This region has doubled in penumbral coverage
during the interval although it remains simply structured. Region
400 (N06W65) was quiescent while undergoing steady decay. The
magnetic gamma structure remains vaguely intact. Regions 405
(S10E66), 406 (S19W11), and 407 (N09E31) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. With continued growth, Region 401 may become capable of
producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. An
extended period of southward Bz (-10 nT) led to the elevated
conditions. An isolated period of major storm levels was observed
between 11/0600 and 11/0900Z. An increase in the solar wind speed
began near mid-period and is likely to be the onset of a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions may occur at both middle and high
latitudes, especially during nighttime hours due to high speed
coronal hole stream effects throughout the period. Day three may
see further elevated conditions due to an anticipated transient
passage from the M3.6 x-ray flare that occurred on 10 July.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 122 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 115/110/120 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 023/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 015/020-015/020-030/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
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