Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional C-class subflares, mostly from Region 375 (N12E50).
Region 375 is now the largest spot group on the disk and was active,
but did not show significant growth during the past 24 hours. The
remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare from Region
375.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was an
isolated minor storm period from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind data
continue to indicate the presence of a high-speed wind stream, which
is due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active at mid-latitudes and active to minor
storm at high latitudes. The high speed coronal hole stream should
continue for at least the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 115 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 022/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/030-020/035-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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