Viewing archive of Friday, 23 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S11W30) produced two flares: a C1/Sf at 22/2114Z and a B7 at 23/0830Z. This region continues to decrease in areal coverage. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 369 (N12E08) and Region 370 (N16E53).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 362 has the potential for C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects continues and solar wind speed remains slightly elevated near 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are expected to continue through day one of the period with active conditions possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 118
  Predicted   24 May-26 May  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        23 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  015/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  017/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%30%
Minor storm15%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%45%
Minor storm25%15%20%
Major-severe storm15%05%10%

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